What're the Odds?

 

Claude, if an average person looks at a square of 9 short word phrases for 20 seconds what are odds they will remember the location of a randomly selected phrase 5 minutes later?

This is a fascinating memory question! The answer depends on several factors, but I can give you a reasonable estimate.

For an **untrained person using passive observation** (just looking without trying to memorize), the odds are probably quite low - maybe **10-30%**. Here's why:

**Working against recall:**

- 9 items exceeds the typical working memory capacity (7±2 items)

- Spatial memory for grid locations requires effort to encode

- 5 minutes is long enough for significant decay without rehearsal

- Random selection means they can't guess strategically

**Working in favor of recall:**

- Short phrases are more memorable than random symbols

- 20 seconds is decent exposure time

- A 3×3 grid is a simple, familiar structure

- Some positions (corners, center) naturally draw more attention

**If the person actively tries to memorize** the locations, odds jump dramatically - probably to **60-80%** or higher. People can use strategies like:

- Chunking items by position

- Creating a mental story linking phrases to locations

- Rehearsing during the 5-minute interval

The **center position and corners** would likely be remembered best (the "serial position effect" applies spatially too), while edge positions might be forgotten more often.

The exact odds would vary quite a bit based on the phrases themselves and whether people know they'll be tested.

Bad or Stupid

 November 17, 2025

Bad or Stupid

Only a very bad, or stupid, Republican would fall into that trap

    For some time now Trump has been the indispensable Republican. That is no longer true. The breaking point has come as he fights to keep hidden what he once called to disclose and it is those in his party who were among the most fervent in proclaiming him their prophet that are now defying him.

    As a practical matter his service to the upper reaches of the American economy has ended with passage of his Bill. He has pulled the wool over for the last time. The trick which he MC'd was to convince enough of the marginally wealthy and the economically dissatisfied that they were confronted with an unholy elite. 

    Not an elite operating a global system of exploitation in the sanctified name of free enterprise but one that has perverted it to serve their private depravity. But if we are going to war with the unholy we will need to know who they are. In our neighborhoods it has become clear that his operatives cannot tell the difference between the innocent and the devil's servants. And in the boardrooms and private jets we are going to have to see for ourselves the scrolls of Epstein to know who bears the mark.

    And, at this critical juncture, behold who frets day and night over the revelation. The more he says there is no evidence the better we can understand the secret of his guilt. The "wonderful secret" may remain hidden but it is evident that he is tormented by the fear that his black and decaying heart will one day come to light.