Thursday, April 2, 2026

Scylla and Charybdis


And now the goddess Circe told Odysseus of a narrow sea passage between two cliffs. Where the sun set the cliff was smooth and reached high beyond arrow shot to the cave of Scylla, a monster whose six heads were crammed with deadly teeth and dangled on necks long enough to reach the decks of all ships passing beneath. And each jaw will snatch an unfortunate sailor and carry him up to devour. On the other cliff grows a fig tree laden with fruit beneath which lurks the monster Charybdis. Three times each day she sucks the sea into her great maw and then belches it forth. No ship can escape ruin which is drawn into her whirlpool. It would be better for him to hug Scylla’s cliff, give up six sailors, and sail quickly on than to hazard the loss of all his crew to Charybdis.


Odysseus questioned in reply whether there may not be a way to avoid Charybdis and still fend off Scylla’s attack so that all his men might survive. But she scolded him that to do battle here as he had fought at Troy would be useless for this foe was immortal and he would only expose his men to even greater losses by attempting to fight.


In the end he bade his crew steer clear of Charybdis but said nothing of the danger from Scylla, He secretly took up his arms against her but he and his men were so distracted with terror when they beheld Charybdis that Scylla carried away her six victims to their horrible fate before anyone was aware of it.  


The well being of ownership is measured first of all in the individual; the individual owner, the individual company. Then it is gathered together as a general measure; of a town, of a country, of the world. The administrators will extol the value of general statistics for the health of the nation but the owners, even at this basic level of accumulating data, are already hostile. We've seen this in the current regime's indifference to accurate data and hatred of those tasked with gathering it.


Arithmetic is private and politics unnecessary to those who own everything until and unless they are challenged by those who supply them labor. Even then they will argue that private coercion will suffice for their protection. But fear and mistrust quickly breaks down that argument and they scramble to assemble vast heaps of force in their defense. 


For the working class, on the other hand, the books and politics are essential. They have no other way to defend their standard of living. “Affordability” is just a way of raising this banner within the limitations of American politics.


The very visible crisis of 2008 pushed the GOP from power. As that receded the parties have seesawed control. In 2024 the GOP rearmed itself with the resentment of workers for losses sustained here, there, and everywhere, since ‘08. Their margin of victory was attributable to their candidate's steadfast negation of the entirety of American politics. He ran as Charybdis. And now it is the Democrats’ turn to take up the cost of living cudgel.


What these twists and turns illustrate is the desperation of the American working class to make use of the two-party system to protect it from the austerity that it has long been promised was reserved for the rest of the world. When the party in power fails the other is given its turn. Each retains its loyalists but, at the edges and in between, the indifferent and the inattentive are swayed in numbers sufficient to redirect the 18th century calculus that awards that prize. 


It is hard to avoid the thought that the present moment in our tacking upwind is critical. The central bank confesses it’s in a predicament. The stock markets shrug their shoulders at their admitted addiction to a credit bubble. By the time the accounts came due in the crisis of ‘08 George Bush was packed to go back to Texas. Now we are not even done with the first year of an administration that is lost in the woods, setting fires, and claiming to be home safe.


And all of this is accelerating. Whether we suffer shipwreck or just the loss of sailors we always awaken back on the other side of this hazardous passage, back with Circe’s choice ahead of us. An abbreviated cycle of history, corso and ricorso. That our ship has the luxury of replaying its fate over and over this way is owing to the position the US attained with the Allied victory in WWII. But, while history may repeat, it does not last forever. Trump’s takeover of the GOP and his return to power is both symptom and contributing factor in the unmaking of this postwar global order. 


He promised a ricorso to a golden age economy which was never going to happen. Instead it is stunning how quickly the actual unravelling has been revealed all while new vistas opened on the frontiers of financial bubbling. He is creating the emergency to justify the dark empire which is being assembled in haste. It is a haste driven by panic and also by their idealist undereading of reality. Their momentary conquest of political power seduces them into overvaluing its ability, at this time of crisis, to guide history. To compound their error they are now demonstrating to the world the failure of this idealism in the Persian Gulf. An unnatural capability and willingness to destroy targets of value has long since failed to provide its proponents any sort of political victory, merely the postponement of defeat.


But what of us materialists? We will have plenty to do. We will have to continue to pay close attention. Appropriate to the Year of the Horse, history is at a gallop.


Marx says that revolutions are the locomotives of world history. But perhaps it is quite otherwise. Perhaps revolutions are an attempt by the passengers on this train - namely, the human race - to activate the emergency brake.


Walter Benjamin - Paralipomena to “On the Concept of History”


Saturday, March 7, 2026

Women Playing Backgammon

Women Playing Backgammon
Libro de los Juegos - Alfonso the Wise
1283

 

Tuesday, March 3, 2026

Big Bang, Fact or Fiction?

 




Should Time This

The Middle of the Night

Rock Paper Scissors Etc


And the Year of the Fire Horse is off at a gallop




Friday, February 6, 2026

The Well at World's End

 


The I Ching hexagram for 2026, Year of the Fire Horse is 48 - Jǐng (井) - The Well.

https://chat.deepseek.com/share/d2t7wdioi35vkgnp75
The town may be changed,
But the well cannot be changed.
It neither decreases nor increases.
They come and go and draw from the well.
If one gets down almost to the water
And the rope does not go all the way,
Or the jug breaks, it brings misfortune.

The well represents the shared needs of the community. These do not include crypto, Greenland, and triumphal arches.

One does not drink the mud of the well.
No animals come to an old well.

If a man wanders around in swampy lowlands, his life is submerged in mud. Such a man loses all significance for mankind. He who throws himself away is no longer sought out by others. In the end no one troubles about him anymore.

This man will sink ever deeper. He will watch in confused despair as the traces he thought would render him immortal are quickly erased.

The well is there for all. No one is forbidden to take water from it. No matter how many come, all find what they need, for the well is dependable. It has a spring and never runs dry. Therefore it is a great blessing to the whole land.

Quotes are from the Wilhelm / Baynes translation of the I Ching

Wednesday, November 19, 2025

What're the Odds?

 






Claude, if an average person looks at a square of 9 short word phrases for 20 seconds what are odds they will remember the location of a randomly selected phrase 5 minutes later?


This is a fascinating memory question! The answer depends on several factors, but I can give you a reasonable estimate.


For an **untrained person using passive observation** (just looking without trying to memorize), the odds are probably quite low - maybe **10-30%**. Here's why:


**Working against recall:**

- 9 items exceeds the typical working memory capacity (7±2 items)

- Spatial memory for grid locations requires effort to encode

- 5 minutes is long enough for significant decay without rehearsal

- Random selection means they can't guess strategically


**Working in favor of recall:**

- Short phrases are more memorable than random symbols

- 20 seconds is decent exposure time

- A 3×3 grid is a simple, familiar structure

- Some positions (corners, center) naturally draw more attention


**If the person actively tries to memorize** the locations, odds jump dramatically - probably to **60-80%** or higher. People can use strategies like:

- Chunking items by position

- Creating a mental story linking phrases to locations

- Rehearsing during the 5-minute interval


The **center position and corners** would likely be remembered best (the "serial position effect" applies spatially too), while edge positions might be forgotten more often.


The exact odds would vary quite a bit based on the phrases themselves and whether people know they'll be tested.




Monday, November 17, 2025

Bad or Stupid

 November 17, 2025


Bad or Stupid


Only a very bad, or stupid, Republican would fall into that trap


    For some time now Trump has been the indispensable Republican. That is no longer true. The breaking point has come as he fights to keep hidden what he once called to disclose and it is those in his party who were among the most fervent in proclaiming him their prophet that are now defying him.


    As a practical matter his service to the upper reaches of the American economy has ended with passage of his Bill. He has pulled the wool over for the last time. The trick which he MC'd was to convince enough of the marginally wealthy and the economically dissatisfied that they were confronted with an unholy elite. 


    Not an elite operating a global system of exploitation in the sanctified name of free enterprise but one that has perverted it to serve their private depravity. But if we are going to war with the unholy we will need to know who they are. In our neighborhoods it has become clear that his operatives cannot tell the difference between the innocent and the devil's servants. And in the boardrooms and private jets we are going to have to see for ourselves the scrolls of Epstein to know who bears the mark.


    And, at this critical juncture, behold who frets day and night over the revelation. The more he says there is no evidence the better we can understand the secret of his guilt. The "wonderful secret" may remain hidden but it is evident that he is tormented by the fear that his black and decaying heart will one day come to light.


Tuesday, October 28, 2025

Happy Halloween


 And I said — “What is written, sweet sister,
On the door of this legended tomb?”
She replied — “Ulalume — Ulalume! —
’T is the vault of thy lost Ulalume!”

Edgar Allen Poe - Ulalume

We do not put up with tense silence -

The imperfection of souls, in the end, is upsetting!

Then the reader shows up, of course, perplexed,

And happily was welcomed; be our guest!


Oh, I know who stood here, unseen;

A fellow of nightmares reading Ulalume.

Sense - vanity and the word - just noise,

When phonetics are the handmaid of a seraph.


Of Edgar’s House of Usher the harp sang.

The lunatic sipped water, came to, went silent.

I was in the street. It whistled, the silk of autumn -

And a scarf, silk, ticklish, warmed my neck.


Osip Mandelstam, 1912